4.2

📋 Análise de balanço

Balanço patrimonial, estrutura de capital, demonstração de resultados e fluxo de caixa

1. Balanço & estrutura de capital

Assets vs. Liabilities

The balance sheet is a snapshot at a specific date (typically 31 December). Basic equation:

Assets = Equity + Liabilities

The left side shows the use of funds (what the company owns), the right side shows the source of funds (where the money came from). Both sides are by definition equal — the question is how healthy the structure is.

Current Assets

Everything that becomes cash within 12 months: cash & bank balances, trade receivables, inventories, short-term financial investments (money market instruments, listed securities).

Working Capital

Working Capital = Current Assets − Current Liabilities. Measures how much operational liquidity the company has beyond its current obligations. Negative working capital is not automatically bad — Amazon and Walmart have it structurally negative because they collect from customers before paying suppliers.

Non-Current Assets

Long-term assets (> 1 year): property, plant & equipment (buildings, machinery, vehicles), intangible assets (software, patents, licences), goodwill (premium paid over book value in acquisitions), equity investments, financial assets.

Equity

The funds belonging to shareholders: share capital (nominal), capital reserves (premium over nominal), retained earnings, minus treasury stock (shares repurchased in buybacks).

Liabilities

Obligations to third parties. Split into current (< 1 year — trade payables, tax liabilities, short-term loans) and non-current (bonds, long-term bank loans, pension provisions, lease liabilities).

Key Ratios at a Glance

Ratio Formula Healthy benchmark Warning level
Equity ratio Equity / Total assets > 30 % < 15 %
Debt-to-equity Total debt / Equity < 2 > 5
Current Ratio Current assets / Current liabilities > 1.5 < 1.0
Quick Ratio (Current assets − Inventories) / Current liabilities > 1.0 < 0.7
Net Debt / EBITDA Net debt / EBITDA < 2–3 > 5

Example: Apple FY2023

Equity ~$62 billion, debt ~$290 billion → equity ratio ~18 %. Weak at first glance. But: Apple simultaneously holds ~$160 billion in cash and short-term securities. Net debt is negative — the company is effectively debt-free; the nominal debt serves only tax optimisation (bonds in the US while cash sits abroad).

Pure equity-ratio thinking falls short for cash-rich companies. Check net debt rather than gross debt.

Pitfalls

  • Goodwill bombs: When 80 % of equity consists of goodwill from an acquisition, a failed impairment test can potentially wipe out 80 % of equity in a single period. Example Bayer/Monsanto: multi-billion goodwill write-downs as litigation risks exploded.
  • Buybacks as equity killers: Companies such as Boeing, McDonald's, and Home Depot have negative equity through decades of buybacks — without any risk of insolvency. The equity ratio is then worthless as a metric; cash flow analysis becomes the only reliable basis.
  • Inventories excluded from the Quick Ratio: Not all inventories are equal. A warehouse full of last-generation iPhones is illiquid. Inventory valuation can contain aggressive assumptions.

2. DRE & Fluxo de caixa

Revenue

The top line. What matters: organic vs. acquisition-driven growth. A company reporting "+15 % revenue" that acquired +12 % of that growth has only +3 % organically — not what the headline suggests. Serious quarterly reports separate both components and show FX-adjusted figures ("constant currency").

Gross Margin

Gross Margin = (Revenue − Cost of Goods Sold) / Revenue. Shows pricing power and production efficiency. Typical ranges:

  • Software / Hyperscale Tech: 60–80 % (Microsoft, Adobe, Salesforce).
  • Consumer Staples: 30–50 % (Procter & Gamble, Nestlé).
  • Retail: 20–40 % (Walmart, Costco towards the low end, luxury at the top).
  • Basic materials: 10–20 % (steel, chemicals).

Operating Margin

Operating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue. Shows efficiency before interest and taxes. A good metric for intra-industry comparisons. Tech hyperscalers run 25–35 %, airlines 5–10 %, banks calculate differently (cost-income ratio).

EBITDA

Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortization. A comparability metric: makes capital-intensive (telcos, utilities) and capital-light industries roughly comparable. But: depreciation is a real cost — machines wear out. Warren Buffett: "Does management think the tooth fairy pays for capital expenditures?"

Net Income & EPS

Net income = the result after all costs, interest, and taxes. EPS (Earnings Per Share) = net income / share count. Diluted EPS accounts for stock options and convertible bonds that may create new shares in the future. For tech companies with large stock-based compensation programmes, the difference between basic and diluted EPS is significant.

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)

Cash generated from operating activities. Starting point is net income, plus depreciation (no cash outflow), plus/minus changes in working capital (receivables, inventories, payables). This figure is harder to manipulate than net income — but not impossible.

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

FCF = OCF − CapEx (investment in property, plant & equipment). What actually remains for dividends, share buybacks, debt repayment, or acquisitions. For long-term investors, the single most important number of a company.

FCF Conversion

FCF Conversion = FCF / Net Income. A benchmark of > 1.0 means: the profit is not just accounting — it is real cash. If FCF/NI is persistently below 0.7, either CapEx is unusually high (growth) or profits are inflated by working capital build-up (rising receivables).

Example: Apple FY2023

  • Revenue: $383 billion
  • Gross Margin: 44 %
  • Operating Margin: 30 %
  • Net Income: $97 billion
  • OCF: $111 billion
  • FCF: $99 billion
  • FCF / Net Income: 1.02

Apple generates more cash than it reports in profit — a sign of high-quality earnings. The cash machine is running.

Pitfalls — Cash Flow Analysis

These patterns mask the true quality of cash flow

Accounting fraud · Real case
Wirecard Pattern

Net income grows, OCF does not. Over 3+ years a reliable early warning indicator for accounting manipulation — at Wirecard this divergence sat unnoticed in the annual report for years.

CapEx reclassification
Aggressive Capitalisation

Over-capitalising CapEx (instead of expensing it directly) artificially inflates OCF. Increasingly relevant in tech companies: Capitalised software development.

One-off effect
Working Capital Swings

An OCF jump in a quarter can simply be a single large customer payment arriving. Annual OCF is more meaningful than quarterly OCF.

Dilution · Tech
SBC Add-Back

Stock-based compensation is added back to OCF (no cash outflow) but dilutes EPS over time. The adjusted FCF − SBC often looks significantly worse than reported FCF.