💎 Değerleme

P/E Ratio

P/E = Price / Earnings per Share. The foundation of equity valuation. It says: how many years of annual profit am I paying for one share. Historical average of the S&P 500: ~16. But sectors vary widely — banks below 12, tech above 25.

Forward vs. Trailing P/E

Trailing P/E (TTM, Trailing Twelve Months) uses the profit of the last 12 months. Forward P/E uses the analyst-estimated profit for the next 12 months. For growth companies the forward P/E is lower than the trailing P/E — because earnings are growing. For cyclicals this can be misleading: forward estimates are too optimistic in booms, too pessimistic in recessions.

P/B Ratio

P/B = Price / Book Value per Share. Useful for banks and capital-intensive industries — here book value is closer to "fair value" than for a software company. P/B < 1 at a bank can mean: the market doubts the asset value (bad loans). For a software company P/B of 10+ is normal because value sits in code and customers, not physical assets.

PEG

PEG = P/E / Expected Earnings Growth (in %). The Peter Lynch metric from "One Up On Wall Street". Rough rule of thumb:

• PEG < 1 → potentially undervalued
• PEG 1–2 → fair
• PEG > 2 → expensive

Only meaningful for genuine growth companies. For stagnating or cyclical companies the growth assumptions are so fragile that the metric creates an illusion of precision.

EV/EBITDA

Enterprise Value = Market cap + Net debt − Cash. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-independent — that is why it is the standard for M&A comparisons and cross-industry benchmarks. Two companies with identical EBITDA but different leverage have the same EV/EBITDA, even though their P/E ratios would differ wildly.

FCF Yield

FCF Yield = FCF / Market cap. The inverse of Price-to-FCF. Benchmark > 5 % as healthy for established companies. At an FCF yield of 8 % you receive as a shareholder 8 cents of cash per invested dollar each year — the company can use this for dividends, buybacks, or debt reduction.

Price/Sales (P/S)

Only a fallback when no profits exist. For unprofitable growth companies (SaaS start-ups, biotechs) it is the only valuation bridge. Tesla 2020: P/S above 15 — historically extreme. Zoom Video 2021: P/S peak ~90. Both collapsed later. Without a profitability comparison P/S is blind.

Sector Benchmarks

Pitfalls

• ❌ P/E misleading for cyclicals: In a boom profits are high, P/E optically low → looks cheap. In a recession profits collapse, P/E optically high → looks expensive. Exactly the reverse of reality. For automotive, steel, chemical, and semiconductor stocks, prefer the Shiller P/E (CAPE, 10-year average) or EV/EBITDA on a multi-year average.
• ❌ P/B misleading when goodwill makes up a very large share of equity — the "hard" book value (Tangible Book Value = equity − goodwill − intangibles) can be significantly lower or even negative.
• ❌ P/S without profitability is flying blind. Two companies at P/S 10 can be completely different — one growing at 40 % on its way to a 25 % margin, the other stagnating at a 3 % margin.
• ❌ EV/EBITDA ignores CapEx. A company with high CapEx needs (steel, telecoms) looks cheaper on EV/EBITDA than it really is. Better: EV/EBIT or EV/FCF.

Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield = Annual Dividend / Price. The simplest — and often the most misleading — metric. It rises when either the dividend is increased (good) or the price falls (usually bad). A yield of 10 % is rarely a gift — more often a warning signal.

Payout Ratio

Payout Ratio = Dividend / Earnings per Share. Shows what percentage of earnings is distributed. Benchmarks:

• < 60 % — sustainable, buffer for earnings fluctuations.
• 60–80 % — acceptable for stable business models (utilities, consumer staples).
• > 80 % — risky. Likely to be cut at the next earnings decline.

Exception: REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) are legally required to distribute 90 %+ to maintain their tax status. Here FFO payout (Funds from Operations) counts as the metric rather than EPS payout.

Dividend Aristocrats

S&P 500 stocks that have raised their dividend for 25 consecutive years or more. A selective group (~65 names). Well-known examples:

• Johnson & Johnson — 60+ years of increases
• Procter & Gamble — 67+ years
• Coca-Cola — 60+ years
• 3M — 65+ years (under pressure from legal disputes at times)
• ExxonMobil — 40+ years

Dividend Kings

The premium class: 50+ years of uninterrupted increases. Only ~30 names worldwide. Examples: Dover Corporation (67+), Genuine Parts Company (67+), Parker Hannifin (67+), American States Water (68+). These companies have survived recessions, oil crises, the dotcom crash, and 2008/09 without a cut.

Ex-Date / Record / Pay Cycle

Four dates determine the dividend process:

1. Declaration Date: The board announces the dividend (amount, dates).
2. Ex-Dividend Date: Those holding the stock before market open on this day receive the dividend. Those who buy on the ex-date or later do not. The stock opens on the ex-date with a price drop equal to the dividend amount.
3. Record Date: Cut-off date for broker settlement (usually 1 business day after ex-date, T+1 since 2024).
4. Payment Date: Money is transferred to accounts (some days to weeks later).

Special Dividends

One-off distributions outside the regular schedule, often after strong cash accumulation or asset sales. Examples:

• Costco regularly pays special dividends of $10–15 per share every 2–3 years in addition to its regular quarterly dividend.
• Microsoft paid a one-time special dividend of $3 per share in 2004 — totalling ~$32 billion, the largest special distribution in US history at the time.

Scrip Dividend (Share Dividend)

A European alternative: shareholders can choose shares instead of cash. This can be tax-advantageous (deferral of capital gains tax). Examples: Deutsche Telekom, Santander, Unilever regularly offer scrip dividends.

Pitfalls

• ❌ Value trap: Dividend yield > 8 % is frequently a precursor to a cut. The market prices it in before the company officially confirms.
  • AT&T 2022: ~7 % yield — then the Warner spin-off and a dividend cut of nearly 50 %.
  • Vonovia 2023: ~8 % yield after the price crash — then a cut by half due to the real estate crisis and interest rate environment.
  • General Electric 2017/2018: yield rising from 3 % to 4 % → ultimately cut from $0.24 to $0.12 to $0.01.
• ❌ Buybacks instead of dividends: EPS manipulation through buybacks makes the number look attractive — but actual cash generation is what counts. Check Total Shareholder Yield = (Dividends + Net buybacks) / Market cap.
• ❌ Dividend cut after acquisition: Those who buy a heavily indebted target often cut the dividend to protect credit ratings. Classic example: Bayer after the Monsanto acquisition.

💡 sTraderZ.com shows cumulative dividends per trade — including withholding tax breakdown for US securities (standard 30 %, with W-8BEN only 15 %).