🔺 Grafik formasyonları

Dönüş ve devam formasyonları, Fibonacci ve hacim analizi

Bu Bölümde

1 Grafik formasyonları I: Dönüş formasyonları 2 Grafik formasyonları II: Devam formasyonları 3 Fibonacci Retracements & Extensions 4 Hacim analizi

1. Grafik formasyonları I: Dönüş formasyonları

Chart patterns emerge through price development over time and signal either trend reversals or trend continuations.

Head & Shoulders

The most reliable reversal pattern after an uptrend: three highs, the middle one (head) higher than the two shoulders. The neckline connects the two lows between the highs.

Variant	Signal	Price target after break
H&S (after uptrend)	📉 Bearish	Neckline − head-neckline distance
Inverse H&S (after downtrend)	📈 Bullish	Neckline + head-neckline distance
Double Top	📉 Bearish	Low − (High − Low)
Double Bottom	📈 Bullish	High + (High − Low)

2. Grafik formasyonları II: Devam formasyonları

Continuation patterns form during an existing trend as a brief consolidation pause before the trend resumes.

Pattern	Appearance	Signal	Price target
Sym. Triangle	Lower highs + higher lows converging	Trend continuation (either direction possible)	Triangle base
Asc. Triangle	Horizontal resistance + rising lows	📈 Bullish breakout expected	Triangle base from breakout point
Desc. Triangle	Falling highs + horizontal support	📉 Bearish breakdown expected	Triangle base from breakout point
Bull Flag 📈	Steep rise + short counter-trend channel	📈 Trend continuation upward	Flagpole + breakout point
Bear Flag 📉	Steep decline + short counter-trend channel	📉 Trend continuation downward	Flagpole − breakout point
Pennant	Like flag, but converging (triangle)	Like flag	Like flag
Rising Wedge	Both trendlines upward, converging	📉 Bearish (despite upward movement)	—
Falling Wedge	Both trendlines downward, converging	📈 Bullish (despite downward movement)	—

💡 Volume confirmation: A valid breakout should be accompanied by increased volume. Breakouts on low volume are often false signals (false breakouts).

3. Fibonacci Retracements & Extensions

Fibonacci retracements are based on the Fibonacci number sequence and identify potential support/resistance levels within a correction. The key levels: 23.6% · 38.2% · 50% · 61.8% (the "golden ratio") · 78.6%.

Level	Meaning	Strength
23.6%	Shallow corrections in strong trends	Low
38.2%	Frequent support in normal corrections	Medium
50%	Psychologically important level (not a true Fibo)	High
61.8%	The "Golden Ratio" — strongest support	Very high
78.6%	Deep corrections — close to the last low	Medium

Fibonacci Extensions (127.2% · 161.8% · 261.8%) are used to determine price targets after a breakout.

💡 Confluence: Fibonacci levels become stronger when they coincide with other S/R levels, moving averages or trendlines ("confluence zone").

4. Hacim analizi

Volume is the number of units traded in a period. It confirms price movements: rising prices on high volume = strong trend. Rising prices on falling volume = weak trend, possible reversal.

Price candles OBV (On-Balance Volume)

Volume Rules

Situation	Meaning
Breakout + high volume	✅ Confirmed breakout, likely sustainable
Breakout + low volume	⚠️ False breakout possible
Decline + high volume	⚠️ Strong selling pressure — possible trend reversal
Decline + low volume	✅ Normal consolidation, trend intact

On-Balance Volume (OBV): Cumulative indicator — adds volume on up candles, subtracts on down candles. OBV divergence (price rises, OBV falls) warns of possible reversal.