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Minervini Trend Template, Momentum Breakout, Mean Reversion, การวิเคราะห์กราฟแบบสวิง และ Buy & Hold

ในบทนี้

1 Trend Following / Minervini Trend Template 2 Momentum / Breakout 3 Mean Reversion / Oversold Bouncer 4 Swing Trading with Chart Analysis 5 Buy & Hold / Value / Dividends

1. Trend Following / Minervini Trend Template

Buy only in strong uptrends following Minervini's 8 Trend Template criteria. Strict stops, position sizing by 1R rule.

▸ At a Glance

📋 Setup

Price > 50/150/200-day MAMAs rising30% above 52W low25% below 52W highRS rating > 70

⚙️ Mgmt

Stop loss 7–8% below entrytrailing stop from 20–25% gainbull markets onlyposition sizing per 1R rule

🎯 Target

Asymmetric payoffride strong trendsexit on trailing stop or trend break

Structure:

Filter stocks: price > 50/150/200-day MA, MAs rising, price near 52-week high
Volume Pocket Pivot or Buyable Gap-Up as entry
Stop-loss strictly 7–8% below entry
Trailing stop at 20–25% open gain

✅ Clear rules
✅ Asymmetric payoff
✅ Works very well in bull markets

⚠️ Frequent stops in choppy markets
⚠️ Misses counter-moves
⚠️ Requires discipline

2. Momentum / Breakout

Buy on breakout above a multi-week consolidation with above-average volume. Fast in, fast out.

▸ At a Glance

📋 Setup

Volume > 1.5× avgPivot clearly definedADR > 2%Market breadth favorable (NYSE A/D)

⚙️ Mgmt

Stop below pivot/consolidation lowstaged profit taking 20/40/60%exit false breakout immediatelyreal-time monitoring

🎯 Target

Quick profits from the breakoutpivot as anchorexit at stop or momentum loss

Structure:

Identification: 4–8 week consolidation (Cup-with-Handle, Flat Base, VCP)
Entry at breakout above pivot with volume > 50% above average
Stop below pivot or consolidation low
Profit-taking staggered 20/40/60%

✅ Quick profits
✅ Clear pivots as anchors
✅ Strong win rate in bull phases

⚠️ Whipsaws on false breakouts
⚠️ Doesn't work in bear markets
⚠️ Requires real-time monitoring

3. Mean Reversion / Oversold Bouncer

Buy short-term oversold quality stocks for a bounce trade. Clear entry and exit triggers via RSI/Bollinger.

▸ At a Glance

📋 Setup

RSI(2) < 10Trend > 200 MAVolume spikeHold duration 3–10 days

⚙️ Mgmt

Entry RSI(2) < 10 / lower Bollinger Bandstop 5% below entryhold 3–10 daysquality stocks in uptrend only

🎯 Target

Bounce to Bollinger midlineexit when RSI(2) > 70many small, fast gains

Structure:

Stock filter: high quality, uptrend intact
Entry trigger: RSI(2) < 10 OR price below lower Bollinger Band
Exit: RSI(2) > 70 OR Bollinger mid reached
Stop-loss: 5% below entry or trend break

✅ High win rate
✅ Quick profits
✅ Works in range markets

⚠️ Catching falling knives risk
⚠️ Poor in crashes
⚠️ Profit per trade usually small

4. Swing Trading with Chart Analysis

Multi-day trades on classic chart setups: trendline bounces, flags, pennants, channel strategies.

▸ At a Glance

📋 Setup

Hold duration 3–15 daysMin. 2:1 risk/rewardVolume confirmation at trigger

⚙️ Mgmt

Stop below/above last swingvolume confirmation at triggermin. 2:1 RRRhold 3–15 days

🎯 Target

Profit at next S/R levelpattern library (flag/wedge)exit at target or stop

Structure:

Identify the setup (e.g. bull flag, falling wedge)
Entry at confirmed breakout or bounce
Stop-loss below/above last swing
Profit target at next resistance/support

✅ Versatile (bull/bear)
✅ Clear setup library
✅ Scalable to any asset class

⚠️ Subjective pattern recognition
⚠️ Requires experience
⚠️ Whipsaws in low-volatility environments

5. Buy & Hold / Value / Dividends

Long-term holding of quality stocks (Buffett style) or dividend aristocrats. "Time in the market beats timing the market."

▸ At a Glance

📋 Setup

P/E historically below sector averageROE > 15%Dividend growth > 5 yrsMoat

⚙️ Mgmt

Rebalance 1–2× per yearreinvest dividends (DRIP)diversify across 15–30 positionsride out drawdowns

🎯 Target

Compounding effect over yearstax-efficient through holding periodexit only on thesis break

Structure:

Selection by fundamental criteria (P/E, ROE, free cash flow, dividend history)
Diversification across 15–30 positions
Rebalancing 1–2× per year
Dividend reinvestment (DRIP)

✅ Lowest complexity
✅ Tax-efficient (holding period)
✅ Compound effect

⚠️ Drawdowns in bear markets painful
⚠️ Opportunity cost in bull phases
⚠️ Requires patience