14.7

🛢 Module 6: Futures & Forex

Futures day trading and forex carry & trend following

1. Futures Day Trading

🛢️ Futures 📈📉
★★★★★

Intraday trading of ES/NQ/GC with leverage and tight stops. Entry/exit within the same trading day.

▸ At a Glance
📋 Setup
Hold duration minutes to hoursStop max 1RDaily loss limit after 2 losers
⚙️ Mgmt
Max 1R per tradedaily loss limit after 2 losersflat by closemax 3 trades/day
🎯 Target
Intraday profit with leverageno overnight riskdisciplined 1R payoff
Structure:
  • Pre-Market preparation: Levels, News, Market Internals
  • Setup selection: ORB, VWAP-Bounce, Levels test
  • Strict risk: max 1R per trade, max 3 trades/day
  • Flat-by-Close rule — no overnight risk
1
Pre-market prep: key levels, news, market internals (ES/NQ/GC).
2
Choose a setup (ORB, VWAP bounce, level test) and be conscious of the leverage that margin creates.
3
✅ Trade on track? Max 1R risk; take partial profits; trail stop.
4
⚠️ Stop hit? Accept it — after 2 losers, hit the daily limit and stop.
5
🔔 Market close? Flat by close — no overnight risk; max 3 trades per day.
  • ✅ High leverage enables large profits
  • ✅ No overnight risk
  • ✅ Liquidity always available
  • ⚠️ Very high complexity
  • ⚠️ Psychologically exhausting
  • ⚠️ Fixed costs (data, platform) high

2. Forex Carry & Trend Following

💱 Forex 📈📉
★★★★☆

Long-term holding of currency pairs with interest rate differential (carry) or trend following on major pairs.

▸ At a Glance
📋 Setup
Carry: Interest diff. > 2%Trend: 200 MA biasStop 100–200 pips
⚙️ Mgmt
Stop 100–200 pips (wide volatility)keep position smallaccount for rollover interestavoid crisis events
🎯 Target
Carry pays dailytrend following on major pairsexit on carry unwind or trend break
Structure:
  • Carry: Long high-yield currency vs. Short low-yield (e.g. AUDJPY)
  • Trend following: 200-day MA as filter, MACD/ADX as trigger
  • Wide stops (forex volatility), small position size
  • Monitor daily rollover rates
1
Choose a currency pair with a positive interest differential (carry) in trend direction — you earn rollover interest.
2
Enter in the direction of the trend — not against the carry.
3
✅ Trend + carry both running? Hold the position, collect daily carry, trail the stop.
4
⚠️ Trend reverses / risk-off phase? Carry trades unwind fast — get out.
5
🔔 Before major central bank events? Reduce risk.
  • ✅ Carry pays daily
  • ✅ Diversification from equities portfolio
  • ✅ Interest rate cycle edge
  • ⚠️ Tail risks during crisis events (carry unwinds)
  • ⚠️ High volatility during news phases
  • ⚠️ Spreads on exotic pairs expensive

3. Commodity Calendar / Inter-Month Spread

🛢️ Futures ↔️
★★★☆☆

Long/Short different delivery months of the same commodity future — trade the shape of the forward curve (Contango vs. Backwardation) rather than price direction.

Contango: distant delivery months more expensive (rising curve). Backwardation is the mirror — distant months cheaper.
Forward CurveShapeTypical Spread
Contangodistant months more expensive (rising)Short far · Long near
Backwardationdistant months cheaper (falling)Long far · Short near
DriverStorage costs · carry · seasonalitySpread margin vs. outright
▸ At a Glance
📋 Setup
Same commodity, two delivery monthsSpread marginHold period weeksseasonal bias
⚙️ Mgmt
Roll before first notice dayTight spread stop (spread points)Respect seasonal windowCheck liquidity of both months
🎯 Target
Capture forward curve convergence/divergencereduced marginlower outright risk than naked future
Structure:
  • Check forward curve: Contango (distant months more expensive) or Backwardation (distant months cheaper)
  • Set up inter-month spread: e.g. Long near month / Short far month (or vice versa)
  • Evaluate seasonal pattern + storage costs/carry as spread drivers
  • Roll before first notice day; use spread margin (significantly below outright margin)
1
Trade two contracts of the same commodity with different expirations (e.g., buy the near, sell the far).
2
Pay attention to the curve shape: contango vs. backwardation determines direction.
3
✅ Curve shape develops as expected (often seasonal)? Close the spread.
4
⚠️ Curve flips? Spread risk is more limited than outright — still set a stop.
5
🔔 Before expiration of the near contract? Roll in time.
  • ✅ Reduced spread margin
  • ✅ Lower directional risk than outright
  • ✅ Seasonally often well-forecastable
  • ⚠️ Roll risk (first notice / delivery)
  • ⚠️ Seasonality is essential — if the pattern breaks, the spread flips
  • ⚠️ Two contracts = two commissions

4. Seasonality Futures

🛢️ Futures 📈📉
★★★☆☆

Trade recurring seasonal patterns — natural gas winter demand, grain harvest cycle, gold strength in Q1. Statistical recurrence as edge.

Stylized natural gas seasonal curve: summer low, rise into winter demand. Enter/exit within the seasonal window by calendar, not gut feeling.
Seasonal WindowAssetTypical Direction
Oct–JanNatural Gas📈 long (winter demand)
After harvestGrains📉 short (supply pressure)
Q1Gold📈 long (demand season)
▸ At a Glance
📋 Setup
Seasonal window with min. 15 yrs historyHit rate above 70%Stop on pattern breakPosition size by vol
⚙️ Mgmt
Window discipline (entry/exit by calendar, not gut feeling)Stop on structural breakMind sample biasWatch for news overrides
🎯 Target
Capture the average seasonal moveclearly defined time windowdiversified vs. equity portfolio
Structure:
  • Check seasonal chart over at least 10–15 years (hit rate + average move)
  • Select seasonal window + asset (e.g. natural gas long Oct→Jan, grains short after harvest)
  • Enter at window start, exit at window end — do not wait for perfect timing
  • Stop against structural break (weather/geopolitics overrides seasonality)
1
Choose a statistically recurring seasonal pattern (e.g., heating oil in autumn, grain cycles).
2
Enter at the historical window start — ONLY if the current trend confirms the pattern.
3
✅ Season playing out as historically? Hold to the window end; take partial profits.
4
⚠️ Price ignores the season? Seasonality is a tendency, not a law — respect the stop.
5
🔔 Window end reached? Close on schedule — regardless of profit or loss.
  • ✅ Clearly defined time frame
  • ✅ Statistically backtestable
  • ✅ Diversified (low equity correlation)
  • ⚠️ Patterns break with structural change
  • ⚠️ Sample bias (overfitting historical coincidences)
  • ⚠️ Weather/geopolitics overrides seasonality

5. Forex Grid Trading

💱 Forex ↔️
★★★★★

Place buy/sell orders at fixed intervals above and below the price (grid). Profits from oscillation in sideways phases — no directional forecast needed.

Price oscillates in a range between fixed grid levels. Buy limits below, sell limits above — each level captures one grid-interval profit.
ParameterExample
Grid interval20 pips
Lot per levelequal (no martingale)
Take-profit1 grid interval per level
Equity stopMandatory — trend = grid fills up
▸ At a Glance
📋 Setup
Range marketfixed grid interval (pips)equal lot size per levelhard equity stopsufficient free margin
⚙️ Mgmt
Equity stop mandatory (trend = grid fills up)no martingale doublingclose grid immediately on trend breakoutkeep large margin buffer
🎯 Target
Skim oscillation in rangesautomatablemany small gains per level
Structure:
  • Identify range market (no strong trend, clear upper/lower boundary)
  • Define grid interval + lot size per level (e.g. every 20 pips)
  • Stack buy limits below, sell limits above the current price
  • Take-profit per level = 1 grid interval; hard equity stop mandatory
1
In a sideways range, place a grid of buy and sell orders at fixed intervals.
2
Each order captures a small profit when the next level is reached.
3
✅ Market stays in the range? The grid profits from the oscillations.
4
⚠️ Market breaks strongly out of the range? Biggest risk — set a hard overall stop; otherwise you risk blowing the account.
5
🔔 Position sizing? Keep it small — grids without stops blow up accounts.
  • ✅ No directional forecast needed
  • ✅ Fully automatable
  • ✅ Works well in sideways markets
  • ⚠️ High risk in strong trend (grid fills up, cumulative loss)
  • ⚠️ Margin call risk
  • ⚠️ Ruin-prone without a hard equity stop